M1EK's Bake-Sale of Bile

Paterno has always done a good job of getting his teams ready for bowl games. The problem is the Big 10's decline in general, which makes it hard to judge how good Penn State really is.

True, and NCAA div 1 suffers from a small sample size of OOC matchups which is getting worse since so few good teams play each other (so you've got a very convoluted comparison path).

For instance, they're all sure that Texas is great. What OOC data do we have, though? Arkansas? PSU destroyed Oregon State who knocked off USC. Neither one is convincing in isolation, but after those games, you go to absolute utter crap for both teams for the other 3 games.

Sagarin's better rankings (the ones that take MOV into consideration) have now moved PSU up to #3 (the PREDICTOR): http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm so I have no patience for those who insist a 1-loss SEC or Big XII team must be superior.

Lots of people, me included, suspect the gaudy offensive stats in the Big XII have a lot to do with bad defense. (The win over Arkansas is meaningless -- Ark. is the #11 team in the SEC this year, the equivalent of Baylor or Iowa State.) Oklahoma is overrated, IMHO.

The disparity between PREDICTOR and ELO-CHESS is interesting. Alabama's #2 under ELO-CHESS and Florida is #15. But under PREDICTOR, Alabama drops to #7 and Florida shoots up to #2. 'Bama should try to beat teams by bigger margins.

I expect a Penn State/USC or Oklahoma championship game. I don't think either UT or 'Bama can close out the season undefeated.

I predict PSU-UT. Alabama is more likely to lose; and I agree with you completely on the defenses in the Big XII. Texas has one of the better ones, which isn't saying much, but that should keep them safe enough to make it through Tech and the championship game.

As a Georgia Bulldog... I generally agree w/ this article - http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95467326

"The system penalizes the teams who play in our premier college football league — the Southeastern Conference."

As much as I hate to agree with a bulldog fan about anything: I agree. Big 12 teams are consistently overrated by the system, and SEC teams are consistently underrated.
Which isn't to say that sometimes Texas really IS that good, but the point of defenses is a good one.

All that really matters this year, however, is that Georgia Tech will be beating Georgia, between the hedges.