April ridership data for Red Line
Thanks to Lee Nichols at the Chronicle, who suffered through the board meeting; we now know that the Red Line had 901 boardings per average weekday in April (something like 450 actual riders; slightly more if a few are taking the bus one way as has been anectdotally reported). Anybody wonder now why they switched, very quickly, to this form of reporting after the huge drop-off in the first week of paid service?
Keep in mind that this April average includes the last two days of the first week of paid service, which were the last two daily reports of 987 and 1226 respectively. Back of the envelope calculation shows that the four full weeks after those two days must have averaged 881 boardings per day. This is well in range with my prediction of 500-1000 boardings per day before express bus trips are cancelled to force some people to switch to the train.
This matches what I saw in my observations of the train at MLK and downtown (assuming ridership continued to drift down after joyriders got through with it in early April); and it matches what I predicted back in 2004. Does it match what anybody else predicted, other than the Skaggs and Daughertys of the world, who think no rail line ever succeeds?
Do you think any of the people, like Dave Dobbs; Lyndon Henry, John-Michael Vincent Cortez; Scott Polikov; various other Capital Metro employees predicting overflow crowds of 2000+ boardings per day; or even my fellow supposed urban-echo-chamberer Shawn Shillington have come forward and admitted they were wrong and I was right?